2022 Housing Market 12 months In Assessment

17 housing tendencies that outlined the yr, together with report residence costs and sky-high mortgage charges

The 2022 housing market was nothing wanting outstanding. The pandemic and ensuing distant work continued to outline how, when, and the place individuals purchased houses. The median U.S. residence value hit a report excessive earlier than falling barely. Rising rents stretched renters’ budgets. Excessive inflation put elevated stress on virtually everybody. For the primary time in historical past, mortgage charges doubled within the span of only one yr. The checklist goes on

Normally, 2022 was a response to the dramatic actual property growth in 2021. The yr began with a surge in costs and development throughout the board earlier than falling alongside report inflation within the fall. November and December noticed a a lot slower and seasonally-expected housing market, with year-over-year adjustments in lease costs, home costs, and rates of interest both falling or slowing down. 

Beneath is a non-exhaustive checklist of knowledge factors and visuals that outlined the 2022 housing market. 

1. House costs rose to an all-time excessive

In Could, the standard residence offered for $430,365, a report excessive since data started in 1963, shattering 2021’s excessive of $386,000. In March, the median sale value rose 16.8% yr over yr, the biggest share enhance during the last 5 years. Following the pandemic, demand skyrocketed whereas provide remained traditionally low, inflicting a extreme housing scarcity and value growth that continued all through 2021 and peaked halfway via 2022. In April and Could, mortgage charges rose to fight rising inflation, which started reversing housing tendencies from earlier within the yr. 

Regardless of a rapidly cooling housing market, costs are nonetheless larger as we speak than any earlier yr on report. 

2. San Francisco was the costliest metro space for homebuyers in 2022 

The median sale value of a house in San Francisco was $1,505,000 in 2022, up 0.3% yr over yr. For one week in April, the median value reached a excessive of $1,700,000, just under 2021’s all-time excessive of $1,728,000. Because the yr went on, costs dropped nearer to pre-pandemic ranges, which is able to probably proceed till mortgage charges fall additional.  

• Six of the highest ten costliest metros had been in California.
• Many Florida metros skilled the biggest year-over-year value development, together with Tampa (18%), Orlando (14.9%), Jacksonville (14.7%), and Miami (14.2%).
• Tampa had the biggest year-over-year value development of all massive metros within the nation. 

The highest ten costliest cities to purchase a house in 2022

Information consists of the yearly aggregated median sale costs out of all houses offered in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Information doesn’t bear in mind native median incomes and residential affordability.

3. Detroit was the least costly metro space for homebuyers in 2022

The median sale value for a house in Detroit was $165,000 in 2022, up 3.3% yr over yr. House costs in Detroit hit $213,000 for every week in June, making it the costliest month of the yr however nonetheless almost 50% decrease than the nationwide median. Normally, year-over-year value will increase in 2022 had been smaller throughout most main metros than in 2021, and development dipped additional heading into the primary week of December. 

• The highest ten least costly metros had been all positioned within the Rust Belt, a geographic area close to the Nice Lakes.
• Philadelphia was the one massive metro that skilled a value lower in 2022.
• Kansas Metropolis, MO was the eleventh least costly metro, and the primary non-Rust-Belt metro on the checklist.

The highest ten least costly cities to purchase a house in 2022

Information consists of the yearly aggregated median sale costs out of all houses offered in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Information doesn’t bear in mind native median incomes and residential affordability. 

4. Lease costs rose dramatically as provide struggled to maintain up with demand

Lease costs in 2022 had been 12.8% larger than they had been in 2021. Nationwide, the median lease value rose to $2,053 in August earlier than dipping barely, the very best on report and a 12.3% enhance year-over-year. Following the pandemic, lease costs skyrocketed largely due to a lack of supply and a boom in demand, each of that are simply now balancing out.

• Median lease costs in New York rose to over $4,000, retaining its dominance as the costliest metro for renters within the nation.
• Lots of the least costly metros skilled the very best year-over-year lease will increase, together with Oklahoma Metropolis (23.3%), Cincinnati (17.6%), and Pittsburgh (14.8%).
• Oklahoma Metropolis skilled the very best year-over-year lease will increase within the nation.  
• Lease development has constantly outpaced wages for many years, however the most recent data states {that a} staggering 40% of renters spent greater than 30% of their earnings on lease from 2017-2021.

There are presently over 1.1 million rental items underneath development within the U.S., which is able to come accessible for lease over the following yr, serving to to alleviate a part of the housing scarcity.

“We count on rents to fall in almost each a part of the nation by the center of 2023 as provide begins overtaking demand,” notes Taylor Marr, Redfin Deputy Chief Economist. “Whereas renters sometimes get the perfect deal throughout the winter months as demand is decrease, rents are persevering with to ease. Due to this, there received’t be as a lot of a seasonal enhance come spring, and thus endurance for a great deal will repay. And don’t be afraid to barter; some landlords could also be open to concessions like a free month’s lease or free parking.”

The highest ten costliest cities for renters in 2022

The highest ten least costly cities for renters in 2022

Information consists of the 2022 aggregated median lease costs for every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas in comparison with 2021 information from the identical interval. Information is the median of all 0-3 bed room rental houses. 

5. Homebuyers trying to relocate favored Solar-Belt cities

24.1% of homebuyers seemed to maneuver to a special metro throughout the three months ending in November. That is on par with the report excessive of 24.2% within the third quarter and up from 19.1% in 2019. 

• Homebuyers seemed to maneuver to sunny, comparatively inexpensive areas, with Miami, Tampa, Las Vegas, and Phoenix being the preferred locations.
• Homebuyers seemed to maneuver away from costly coastal metros like San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York, which topped the checklist.
• 100% of houses in lots of fashionable relocation metros skilled extreme drought prior to now yr, together with Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Sacramento.

“Much like 2021, continued development in distant work and a need for housing affordability drove relocation patterns in 2022,” Marr continues. “Nevertheless, tendencies in some fashionable locations reversed course after they turned too fashionable, aggressive, and costly. Cities like Salt Lake Metropolis, Phoenix, Tucson, Dallas, and San Antonio all declined in reputation in 2022.”

Information is the p.c of Redfin.com customers trying to find houses exterior their metro. Information is the yr median mixture of a number of three month shifting aggregates and doesn’t embrace September-December. Sustain with the newest migration information right here. 

6. Inflation rose at a report tempo, affecting each side of the housing market

The costs of products and providers rose to six.48% yr over yr in November, the very best share since August 1982 and greater than double the speed from November 2021. In actual fact, inflation charges have doubled in comparison with the earlier yr in each month since June. Rising costs severely restricted shopper spending and slowed almost each side of the housing market. 

• • To fight the historic inflation, the Fed raised its goal rate of interest to 4.5%, the highest in 15 years.
  • Skyrocketing rates of interest brought about mortgage charges to rise and elevated fears of a recession, protecting homebuyers out of the housing market.
  • Inflation rose the quickest in pandemic boomtowns due partly to the sudden leap in home costs, which is a key contributor to inflation.

Information courtesy of FRED. Information measures core CPI (much less meals and power) via November 2022. 

7. Mortgage charges ballooned to almost 7% in response to report inflation

After a long time of falling mortgage charges, in 2022, charges climbed to almost 7% in each October and November, larger than any level since 2002. In actual fact, from October 2021 to October 2022, mortgage charges doubled in a single yr for the primary time in historical past. 

Because the yr got here to a detailed, optimistic inflation information helped cut back housing rates of interest to under 7%.

• In fashionable migration metros like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Austin, larger mortgage charges and costly residence costs damage consumers essentially the most.
• In Phoenix, for instance, as mortgage charges climbed in Could and June, solely 21.5% of houses had been inexpensive to consumers with a $2,500 month-to-month mortgage price range – a 28.5% drop from 2021.

Excessive inflation and rising mortgage charges usually deter consumers, however should you’re capable of afford it, possession could be the higher possibility. “Homeownership is a long-term funding that may result in vital internet price good points, even with charges above 6%,” advises Dean Hayes, Space Gross sales Supervisor with Bay Equity, a Redfin firm. “Mortgage charges will probably go down within the new yr, that means extra residence consumers will return to the market, creating elevated competitors and fewer room for negotiation.”

8. Housing stock rose after hitting a report low

10.7 million houses had been listed on the market via November, up 11.2% in comparison with the 9.5 million houses listed via November in 2021. Within the three months ending November 2022, the variety of houses on the market elevated by 15% yr over yr, the most important enhance on report. 

As mortgage charges rose alongside inflation, extra consumers determined to remain put, permitting stock to extend. Since December 2019, stock has declined yr over yr till it lastly rose in June 2022.

“Consumers have extra leverage now than they’ve since 2010,” advises San Francisco Redfin agent Josh Felder. “Even with larger mortgage charges, should you intend to remain put for longer than 5 years, it’s an incredible funding. Houses are forecast to nonetheless recognize, even in gentle of present circumstances. Sellers ought to perceive that the market continues to be shifting. Houses don’t promote in 5 days, effectively over checklist value, anymore.”

Stock and provide are calculated in rolling 90-day intervals, e.g., January 2022 information is the three-month interval from November 1, 2021, via January 31, 2022.

9. Months of provide dropped to a near-record low of simply 1.2 months

Whereas stock measures the variety of houses presently accessible on the market, months of provide measures the period of time it could take these houses to promote. 4 to 5 months of housing provide is taken into account the optimum benchmark. Lower than three months of housing provide usually implies that there are extra consumers than sellers, whereas the next quantity means there are extra sellers than consumers. Stock and provide sometimes transfer collectively. 

Nationwide, months of housing provide dipped to simply over 1.2 months in March earlier than slowly rebounding in the summertime. 12 months over yr, months of provide has declined virtually each month since January 2020. 

• As consumers retreated because of excessive inflation and rates of interest, months of provide started to develop in July and August, reaching 2.3 months of provide by September.
• In Seattle, months of provide reached a near-record low of simply 15.5 days in January and February, the bottom of any main metropolitan space.

“We’re rapidly working again towards a balanced market, which is three to 6 months of stock,” says Seattle-area Redfin agent Brian Shields. “We’ve been in a vendor’s market with lower than 5 months of stock for a number of years, till halfway via this yr. Consumers now have much more decisions than they did final Spring.”

Stock and provide are calculated in 90-day intervals, e.g., January 2022 information is the three-month interval from November 1, 2021, via January 31, 2022.

10. New development took up a rising share of housing stock 

There have been 1.25 million privately-owned new houses constructed within the U.S. via November 2022, up 3% from a yr in the past. As inflation rose and the market slowed, builders started slowing their manufacturing to unload what they already had. 

New development has been taking over a rising portion of general housing provide since 2011, when constructing rebounded after the monetary disaster. This development intensified in 2021 and solely lately started to decelerate. “In case you’re a purchaser, contemplate new development houses,” advises Kim Stearns, a Northern Idaho Redfin agent. “Due to a list buildup, many builders have one to 4 houses they’d love to shut on and can usually provide incentives.”  

• Over 63% of latest builds had been single-family houses, up 2% yr over yr
• New development begins dropped from their peak of 164,000 in April to 111,000 in November

Information courtesy of Census.gov. 

11. House gross sales fell almost 17% yr over yr 

5.62 million U.S. houses offered via November, down 16.6% yr over yr, a pointy lower from the 6.74 million offered in 2021 throughout the identical interval. Normally, between 4 and 7 million houses promote per yr, with the historic common sitting at just over 5 million. 12 months-over-year residence gross sales decreased in each month of 2022, with October and November posting the sharpest declines. 

• Simply 376,000 houses offered in November, down 37.4% yr over yr and a seasonally-adjusted historic low (since 2001).
• June was the busiest month with 626,641 houses offered, a 15.2% year-over-year dip.

Information was collected via November.

12. Median days on market rose at a report tempo, signaling a dramatic turnaround from 2021’s breakneck tempo

In 2022, houses spent a median of simply 24 days available on the market, an 8.4% enhance yr over yr in comparison with the 22 days available on the market in 2021. Since 2020, a housing provide crunch has been brought on by provide chain points, a continual lack of homebuilding, and a rise in demand. In 2022, time available on the market ticked up as homebuilding started to catch as much as demand and excessive mortgage and inflation charges restricted consumers’ spending energy. 

“On account of a slowing economic system and layoffs within the tech sector close to the tip of the yr, many consumers paused their residence search because of affordability and job safety,” notes Frank Vettesse III, a San Francisco Redfin agent. “This was one among many components that contributed to the dramatic slowdown in gross sales.”

• Could was the busiest month of the yr, with houses spending a median of simply 17 days available on the market.
• Within the 4 weeks ending December 4th, houses spent a median of 37 days available on the market, the slowest month of 2022 and the most important year-over-year slowdown on report.

13. 14% of lively residence listings skilled value drops 

On common, 14% of lively houses on the market had value drops in 2022, up 4.7% yr over yr. In October, 22.6% of listings had value drops, a decades-long excessive. In actual fact, from February via July, the variety of houses with value drops rose from 5.7% to 19.5%, a record-fast enhance. “The shift was dramatic,” says Christy Seashore, a Seattle-area Redfin agent. “The consumers who didn’t safe a house throughout the top of competitors are actually bidding low. For instance, the identical sort of residence that consumers had been prepared to supply $200,000 over checklist value are actually providing $200,000 under checklist value.” 

• In Denver, 47% of houses skilled reductions in value, the very best share of any main metropolis.
• Regardless that value drops had been widespread, median sale costs nonetheless elevated in virtually each metro within the county. 
• Many pandemic-era migration hotspots, equivalent to Tampa, Las Vegas, and West Palm Seashore, had a big share of listings with value drops as effectively.

“As sellers with stale listings turned more and more anxious to get their properties offered, we noticed a steep rise in value drops via the summer time right here in Washington State,” says Darlene Haselton, a Tacoma, WA Redfin agent. “Presently, houses which can be recent available on the market are beginning to transfer extra rapidly. As mortgage charges dip additional, in-demand properties might begin receiving a number of affords.” 

The highest 5 cities with the very best share of value drops in 2022

Information consists of the median value drops out of all lively listings in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. 

14. 55% of houses had a bidding conflict

55% of houses had bidding wars in 2022, down from 64% in 2021. Coastal metros skilled the very best charges of bidding wars, together with Boston (69.8%) and Los Angeles (67.7%). 

Nevertheless, nationwide, bidding wars fell from 72% to 35% from February to November. A worsening economic system, larger mortgage charges, and a rise in provide contributed to the slowdown.

Shauna Pendleton, a Boise, ID Redfin agent, advises sellers to be affected person and await mortgage charges to drop. “Until a house is priced $100,000 or extra underneath market worth, bidding wars are largely non-existent. Our staff nonetheless hears of some multiple-offer conditions; in these instances, it’s sometimes a luxurious residence in a high-demand neighborhood that’s priced very aggressively.” 

The highest 5 metros with the very best share of bidding wars in 2022

Information consists of the median share of bidding wars throughout lively listings in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. 

15. Over 30% of houses had been bought with money in 2022

30.7% of houses had been bought with all money, up 2% yr over yr. In October (the latest information accessible), 32% of houses had been paid for with all money, up 2% yr over yr and the very best share since 2014. 

• Florida was the preferred state for all-cash purchases, particularly Jacksonville and West Palm Seashore.
• Costly west coast metros, together with Oakland, San Jose, and Seattle, had the bottom share of all-cash purchases.

Information is from a Redfin evaluation of county data throughout 39 of essentially the most populous U.S. metropolitan areas, relationship again via 2011. Information doesn’t embrace November or December.

16. Actual property buyers bought almost 20% of accessible listings, a brand new report

Vying to capitalize on the housing and rental growth, buyers bought 233,701 houses in 2022 via September, a record-breaking 19.1% of all listings. Multifamily residential properties constituted the biggest share of investor market share, with a median of 30% of those properties being bought by buyers. 

Pandemic boomtowns turned the biggest investor hotspots, particularly in Solar-Belt metros.

The highest 5 metros with the biggest investor market shares in 2022

Information is analyzed on a quarterly foundation and consists of all property sorts except in any other case said. Whole share is the typical of knowledge from January-September. Information doesn’t embrace the final quarter of 2022. 

17. Luxurious residence gross sales skilled their greatest year-over-year decline on report

In 2022, there have been 258,733 luxurious houses offered within the U.S., down 27% yr over yr and the most important decline since 2012. Lively listings dropped even additional, falling by 32.7% yr over yr. The median sale value for a luxurious residence was $1,080,000, up 14.8% yr over yr. Costs reached their peak of $1,120,000 throughout the three months ending Could, a 15.7% year-over-year enhance. Nevertheless, value development, listings, and gross sales slowed considerably as demand cooled later within the yr. 

• Within the three months ending November thirtieth, luxurious residence gross sales fell by 38.1%, the biggest drop on report. 
• Luxurious houses spent a median of 32 days available on the market via November, up 28.9% yr over yr
• Tampa was the quickest rising luxurious market, with costs rising by 32.3% yr over yr
• Luxurious residence gross sales declined by 47% in San Jose, the most important fall of any main metro

“In Seattle, luxurious listings noticed the biggest reductions in value,” continues Seattle agent Christy Seashore. “Within the present market, most sellers with a value level of $1.5 million or larger want to arrange to make their residence stand out among the many competitors. As a rule, sellers are having to barter their value and phrases with consumers.”

Luxurious houses are outlined as the highest 5% of listings in a given market. Values are three month shifting aggregates ending on the date proven, e.g., November 2022 spans September, October, and November 2022. Information doesn’t embrace the three months ending December 31. 

Trying ahead

The 2022 housing market was chaotic, however what does Redfin predict for 2023? Learn our 2023 Housing Market Predictions to study extra.

All information was compiled by the week ending December 23, 2022. Information is aggregated from January to November and doesn’t embrace December except said in any other case. All information is from Redfin, FRED, and/or public data. For questions on metrics, learn our metrics definitions web page.